Welcome to the next installment of MMN’s Mid-Season Top 25 Prospects! We’re in the final stretch now, as Nos. 6 and 5 will be revealed today, and you’ll get one a day on each of Tuesday — Friday until our No. 1 is revealed!
6. Dominic Smith, 1B
Height: 6’0”
Weightt: 185
Age: 18
Bats/Throws: L/L
Contact: 40/60 Power: 40/60 Speed 40/45 Arm: 60/60 Fielding 50/60
Drafted with the 11th pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, a large portion of the Mets fan base quickly fell in love with Dominic Smith and his bright future. Smith was drafted out of Serra HS in California and immediately found himself among the elite of Mets prospects. In 25 games with Serra HS, Smith was batting .551, 49-for-78, with nine home runs and 49 RBIs.
Of course, since most people put little to no stock in HS stats, it’s important to focus on his projectability and what type of player Smith looks to be down the line. This is why he finds himself so high on our list — he is brimming with potential and athleticism. To be straightforward with you, Dominic Smith reminds me a lot of Todd Helton without the benefit of Coors Field. I see him in the .260 – .280 range with about 25 – 30 home runs, which is a little less power than you would hope for at first base, but he complements the offensive talent with above-average defensive capabilities.Character may always be a bonus in projecting prospects down the line, but it’s also safe to say that Smith is a young man of high character and a good work ethic.
In the long run, those numbers may not jump out at you right away, but consider that Smith could potentially move through the system quickly, if the Mets let him, and could end up playing with the MLB team for years to come as an above-average regular. At the time he was drafted, Jim Callis had written that Smith was perhaps the “best all-around hitter in this draft.”
I really think he’s got a smooth swing that should work fine at any level — small uppercut but we can live with that. At 18 years old, he has some problem with pitch recognition…but he’s 18. I wouldn’t make too much of it. Worth noting is that some have considered putting him in right-field, where his bat plays a little better, but I wouldn’t even entertain that possibility. Just because he CAN play out there doesn’t mean that we SHOULD put him out there. He can a defensive asset at first base and a liability in right field, and I don’t want to have to deal with that going ahead. Stick him at first base and let him be the first baseman of the future.
MMN Mid-Season Top 25 Prospects Series
The traditional scouting scale, which ranks players on a scale of 20-80 (abbreviated at times without the zero), can summarize how we feel about a player in an easy to understand format. Now, for those of you unfamiliar with the scale, you’ll see two numbers — something like 30/60, which isn’t a fraction, but rather a representation of their present status and their potential. The number on the left represents their current standing, while the number on the right shows what they could become. For a further explanation on what the numbers mean, I strongly encourage you to check out these links (Scouting for Batters and Scouting for Pitchers) which I will leave on each post going ahead in this series. With that being said, I really hope you enjoy our work going ahead, and any and all questions and comments are appreciated.
Previous Posts
Nos. 11 – 15: Kevin Plawecki to Domingo Tapia
Nos. 16 – 20: Steven Matz to Hansel Robles
Nos. 21 – 25: Aderlin Rodriguez to Ivan Wilson
Its very telling how Smith surpasses Nimmo and Cecchini on this list so quickly and I believe most other lists will have Smith ahead of them as well and rightfully so. He’s just more talented and has actually PLUS TOOLS where Nimmo & Cecchini are at best solid across the board no Loud tools.
In 2012 only 3 NL 1B had 30 HRs or more (I didn´t include AL players because some listed at 1B are actually DHs). Only 12 NL players total had 30 HRs or more–less than 1 per team. So to say that 25-30 HRs ¨is a little less power than you would hope for at first base¨ may be setting the bar too high. I´d be thrilled if he ended up hitting 25-30 HRs. What matters is having some power at multiple positions. This leaves you less vulnerable to injury, slumps, or simply pitching around a dangerous hitter.
I grew up looking at 1B at the ultimate power position. The DH has taken away from that little in the AL, but I was taught that 1B would be where you put the man that can’t field but can hit the ball a mile.
So that statement was a product of my mindset and not a knock on Smith’s power.
Good research, thanks.
Yes. I would always lean towards high ceiling.
Satish- Ideally this would be great. I wonder if the Mets would take a look at Corey Hart on a short-term, incentive based deal this offseason. He hasn´t played this year due to injury, but he´s a monster power threat. If the Mets are ready to move on from Davis and Duda, he might be an option.