No. 2 Brett Baty, 3B

B/T: L/R     Age: November 13, 1999 (22)
Ht: 6’3″       Wt: 210 lb.
ETA: 2023  Previous Rank: 5
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round of the 2019 June Amateur Draft
2021 Stats (Brooklyn/Binghamton): .292/.373/.473, 22 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 6 SB, 3 CS

When Brett Baty was drafted by the Mets with the 12th overall pick of the 2019 draft, it often felt as though people wanted to talk more about his age than the type of player he was. Nearly nineteen-and-a-half years old at the time of the draft, Baty was among the oldest high school players that year. In fact, he is a month older than fellow top prospect, Mark Vientos, who was drafted out of high school in 2017.

Everyone knew that Baty was incredibly advanced for a high school hitter, but some wondered how much that was a product of him being older than the competition. Although the COVID-19 pandemic delayed his opportunity to prove himself in the upper minors, Baty’s strong 2021 season should put those murmurs about his age firmly in the rear-view mirror.

The Mets did not balk at Baty’s age in the 2019 draft and quickly signed him to a $3.9 million bonus, a total which was $466,000 below slot value. Recognizing that Baty was considerably more advanced than even the standard top high school bat, the Mets allowed him a quick five game tune-up in the Gulf Coast League before giving him a more aggressive assignment at Rookie-league Kingsport.

He had an up-and-down couple of months there before the Mets promoted him to Brooklyn to support their playoff race. Facing off primarily against pitchers who were just drafted out of college, Baty held his own, managing a .529 OBP over four games. Overall, Baty had a strong start to his professional career. He hit .234/.368/.452 with seven home runs across three levels, good for a 131 wRC+.

The 2020 season was cancelled due to the pandemic, but Baty was still able to get experience both at the alternate site in Brooklyn and the fall instructional camp in St. Lucie. He clearly impressed there, as the Mets had enough confidence in him to have him skip over Low-A St. Lucie and return to Brooklyn, which was now the Mets’ High-A affiliate. Two years younger than the average player in the league, Baty was progressing about how one would expect a top high school draftee to progress, but, with just 51 professional games under his belt, it was still a tough assignment.

In Brooklyn, Baty merely held his own at first. For the first month of the season, he hit .318/.429/.397, but he did not hit any home runs, leaving people wondering where his much-vaunted power was. After that first month, Baty’s power surged to the tune of a .305/.379/.576 line, with 17 of his 36 hits going for extra bases, including seven home runs.

When, in late June, Baty started to get some starts in left field, it appeared that a promotion to Double-A Binghamton was imminent, and the inevitable finally happened in mid-July. In order to share time on the field with Vientos, Baty played 15 of his 40 games in left field and did well at both positions.

Offensively, Baty wasn’t quite able to keep the momentum that he was building in Brooklyn, and a COVID-19 outbreak among the Rumble Ponies cost him two and a half weeks when it looked like he might be heating up. Even so, he still managed a .272/.364/.424 line, which was good for an above-average 118 wRC+ at the level. Additionally, Baty was now one of the youngest players in the league: he was three years younger than the average Double-A player and had only 11 plate appearances against pitchers younger than him all season. Baty had a similarly strong performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .292/.373/.405.

https://twitter.com/SNY_Mets/status/1421916198204235781

Baty has soared up prospect rankings over the last year due to both his advanced feel to hit and his incredible raw power. Baty has a slightly open stance with a small crouch. He holds his hands high and starts his swing with a slight leg kick, but quickly gets the bat off his shoulder and through the zone without a noticeable hitch.

He has good bat speed which complements his overall large and strong frame. The high placement of his hands allows him to gain bat speed as the bat drops through the zone, but it also adds length to his swing and results in his swing having a clear uppercut. Although this has led to swing-and-miss issues in the past, that wasn’t really an issue in 2021. Baty’s 25.5% K% for the season seems high, but his 11.7% swinging strike rate is right around the major league average of 11.3% and is only a touch higher than Pete Alonso‘s 11.5% rate, indicating that the high strikeout rate is probably more a result of a patient approach than a more significant whiff problem.

The length in Baty’s swing, however, does manifest itself in the quality of the contact he does make. His huge raw power is one of the reasons why he’s so highly rated, but he has been unable to unlock it in games thus far. Fangraphs notes he “put on an absolute clinic during BP at the 2021 Futures Game, arguably showing the most raw power at the entire event aside from maybe Francisco Álvarez” and grades his raw power as a future 70 or “plus-plus” tool.

However, they only see his future game power as “average” because “the length in Baty’s swing makes it hard for him to turn on velocity and causes him to drive the ball into the ground more than is ideal for a hitter with this much raw power.” This assessment is backed up by Baty’s batted ball numbers from last season, when he had an astoundingly high 55.1% ground-ball rate as compared to just a 21.4% fly-ball rate. When he did hit the ball in the air, big things happened. His average exit velocity last season was a very solid 91 MPH. He also had a 24% HR/FB% for the season which was nearly double the major league average of 13.6%, indicating that the problem lies primarily in the average launch angle Baty produces, rather than an inability to make hard contact.

Prospects Live notes that Baty has “struggle[d] pretty badly against left handed pitching” in the past. However, his platoon splits in 2021 were much more even, with him hitting .298/.394/.488 against righties and .278/.350/.433 against lefties. Maintaining an above average line against lefties will be important for his value as a prospect as he reaches the highest levels of the minors.

Among #Mets spring training games that had Statcast, Brett Baty recorded the third-highest exit velocity on an opposite-field hit at 107.4 mph.

Pete Alonso (112.6 mph) & Bruce Maxwell (109.3 mph) were the two ahead.@baty_brett @Metsmerized #LGM pic.twitter.com/LMXM41g6NG

— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) March 10, 2021

When Baty was drafted, the predominant speculation was that he would eventually be forced to move down the defensive spectrum, with left field or first base being the most likely destinations. However, he has slimmed down a bit since being drafted and has improved his athleticism over the last several years. He still doesn’t have great range, but he can certainly make all the routine plays.  He’s never going to be an elite defender at third base, but most prospect evaluators believe that he’s likely to be pretty close to average there. With fringe-average speed and an above-average to plus arm, he could also do well in a corner outfield position if he is pushed off third base for any reason.

Entering the 2022 season, Baty is already a very complete player. While he is not going to blow you away with each of the five tools, he has also put in the work to ensure that no area of his game will hold him back at the highest levels. Although he’s at least decent at everything – a package which gives him a very high floor for someone entering only his second full season – whether Baty becomes a star depends on how his hitting develops.

If Baty remains a good overall hitter with fairly limited game power, he’ll still be an average to above average major league third baseman. But if, perhaps through a minor swing change or an adjustment of his approach at the plate, he can unlock his massive power in games, the sky is truly the limit for him. Baty will likely start the season with Triple-A Syracuse and, although a late season call-up is certainly not out of the question, it seems more likely that the Mets introduce the player they hope will be their third baseman of the future to the home crowd at the start of the 2023 season.

Mets Top Prospects 29-30
Mets Top Prospects 27-28
Mets Top Prospects 25-26
Mets Top Prospects 23-24
Mets Top Prospects 21-22
Mets Top Prospects 20 Eric Orze
Mets Top Prospects 19 Hayden Senger
Mets Top Prospects 18 Jaylen Palmer
Mets Top Prospects 17 Adam Oller
Mets Top Prospects 16 Jake Mangum
Mets Top Prospects 15 Carlos Cortes
Mets Top Prospects 14 Joel Diaz
Mets Top Prospects 13 Calvin Ziegler
Mets Top Prospects 12 Simon Juan
Mets Top Prospects 11 Jose Butto
Mets Top Prospects 10 Nick Plummer
Mets Top Prospects 9 Dominic Hamel
Mets Top Prospects 8 Khalil Lee
Mets Top Prospects 7 Alex Ramirez
Mets Top Prospects 6 J.T. Ginn
Mets Top Prospects 5 Mark Vientos
Mets Top Prospects 4 Matt Allan
Mets Top Prospects 3 Ronny Mauricio